Recent reports suggest that, as a result of the parliamentary intrigue surrounding Ottawa's possible coalition government, Beasejour MP and Liberal leadership candidate Dominic Leblanc will be given a post in a Dion-led ministry.
Having met Mr. Leblanc on more than one occasion, this blogger has to ask: if this chap's name was Dominic Leclerc, or if his father was not the former governor-general of Canada, would he seriously be put on a short list of 3 names likely to be named prime minister a year from now?
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Did Shawn Graham Just Win a Second Term?
The new Tory leader, David Alward, decided his first statement upon becoming provincial leader was to request that partisans sing Happy Birthday.
He then declined to sing along. Nice.
He then declined to sing along. Nice.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Steve Murphy, hack journalist?
Andrew Krystal, perhaps the most straightforward talk-radio host in Atlantic Canada, spent this morning taking Steve Murphy and the ATV newsroom to task for their airing of Stephane Dion’s fumbling of an economic question during a taped interview.
Krystal’s criticism? That leaders fumble all the time in interviews, and many reporters (keen to have lucid answers) will give the politician the chance to call a mulligan. Harper himself had to use a mulligan when conducting an interview with Krystal over Iraq a few years back - because the interview was taped, the talk radio host gave the conservative leader a chance to do a do-over.
Murphy gave Dion this chance, but then decided that having a leader stumble over the verb tense in a single question was more news-worthy than having a lucid discussion on economic matters. This shows either poor news judgement on Murphy’s part, or an implicit conservative bias (in his memoirs, Murphy regales in telling the reader how hard he was on John Turner during the 1988 election campaign).
Let’s be clear. Dion’s fumble is in no way an indication of his ability to handle the current economic crisis. This was not at all like Sarah Palin’s incomprehension over the Bush doctrine, or suggestions that close proximity to Russia made her an expert in Foreign Policy. It was a linguistic fumble, and offered no glimpse as to the Liberal leader’s economic thinking. Perhaps Dion would have satisfied Murphy if he took a page from Harper’s playbook and simply stated, “If I were Prime Minister today, I would tell all Canadians to buy Nortel. It’s a bargain!”
Alas, Dion didn’t choose to play stockpicker. And in turn, the ATV newsroom didn’t choose to be impartial.
Krystal’s criticism? That leaders fumble all the time in interviews, and many reporters (keen to have lucid answers) will give the politician the chance to call a mulligan. Harper himself had to use a mulligan when conducting an interview with Krystal over Iraq a few years back - because the interview was taped, the talk radio host gave the conservative leader a chance to do a do-over.
Murphy gave Dion this chance, but then decided that having a leader stumble over the verb tense in a single question was more news-worthy than having a lucid discussion on economic matters. This shows either poor news judgement on Murphy’s part, or an implicit conservative bias (in his memoirs, Murphy regales in telling the reader how hard he was on John Turner during the 1988 election campaign).
Let’s be clear. Dion’s fumble is in no way an indication of his ability to handle the current economic crisis. This was not at all like Sarah Palin’s incomprehension over the Bush doctrine, or suggestions that close proximity to Russia made her an expert in Foreign Policy. It was a linguistic fumble, and offered no glimpse as to the Liberal leader’s economic thinking. Perhaps Dion would have satisfied Murphy if he took a page from Harper’s playbook and simply stated, “If I were Prime Minister today, I would tell all Canadians to buy Nortel. It’s a bargain!”
Alas, Dion didn’t choose to play stockpicker. And in turn, the ATV newsroom didn’t choose to be impartial.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
campaign bubbles, and the lessons of elections past
The Toronto Star reported today that the Harper campaign lives in a bubble.
No surprise here, really. All winning campaigns innoculate their candidate from the flotsam and jetsam of real campaigning, if only to protect their lead.
The challenge for Liberals here is to pierce the bubble. Fortunately, there are lessons from 1988 and 1993 that should guide the Dion team.
1/ Call upon the PM to leave his bubble, and listen to the challenges facing ordinary Canadians. Turner did this in advance of the debates, reminding voters (and the media) that campaigns were about more than staged photo-ops organized by Mulroney, and on rare occasions should be about vital issues (like Free Trade). This warms the electorate up to step two…
2/ Bet the farm on the debates. Turn earnestness into passion, in both English and French. Everyone remembers how Turner came back from the dead in the 1988 English debates as a result of his passionate defense of Canadian sovereignty, but few remember how he performed above expectations in French, as well (read Graham Fraser’s Playing for Keeps for a refresher on the Debates).
Dion needs to start memorizing some great gut-check lines (in both languages), to make voters warm up to the idea that this guy could easily hand out treats at 24 Sussex come Hallowee’en (in other words, seem human). He should talk about how he wrote so many pesky letters to Lucien Bouchard that the guy eventually left politics in a huff, or mention how he first came to Ottawa with little more than a sleeping bag and a napsack, at a time when few in the country were optimistic about Canada’s longterm prospects. In other words, show some emotion, but whatever he says, don’t talk about that dog Kyoto.
3/ Challenge both Layton and May in the French debates, and ask (before Harper) why Duceppe is even here. He needs to start making a play for the abundance of progressive votes out there. He should also quote from his father Leon Dion, to remind the Quebec electorate that he’s something else besides a mousy caricature from Le Devoir, and would arguably better represent his home province than Duceppe.
4/ Inject some energy - chaos, even - into the campaign. The media has been increasingly reporting about the dismal enthusiasm surrounding the leader’s tour - poor attendance at campaign events, a light campaign schedule, etc., etc.
Dion needs to shake things up, by presenting some of the energy his team showed the morning of the leadership race. Go reckless, and avoid whatever bubble might be created for you. Mainstreet, phone-bank, do anything, as long as it shows activity.
Some historical tips, on how to successfully leave the bubble?
In 1988, after his own campaign fell into temporary disarray by the re-emergence of Turner in the polls, Mulroney righted the Tory ship by facing the key issue, unscripted. In one campaign stop, he sat down with anti-Free Trade protestors, and debated the merits of their concerns point blank. He certainly did not win their vote, but the media scrum that reported on their encounter showed a Prime Minister who was supremely confident of the direction he was ready to take the country.
Press reports state that Dion is in Quebec City today. He should be taking the media to the suburban neighbourhood he grew up in, and attempt to connect with voters. A risky strategy, especially if there are few Liberal voters to be found in Quebec’s suburbs, but to change the dynamic of this race Dion needs to cut through the media lens, and reach out to all those who fear a Tory majority.
In 1993, Chretien helped create a winning campaign by literally manufacturing enthusiasm. There was precious little down time on his tour, as even the late-night hotel stops became campaign events (I remember, because I used to attend them). It did not matter that these events were only scripted enthusaism, or that they were held well after reporters had filed their stories. They created energy, and that is just one of many items the Dion campaign seems to need.
No surprise here, really. All winning campaigns innoculate their candidate from the flotsam and jetsam of real campaigning, if only to protect their lead.
The challenge for Liberals here is to pierce the bubble. Fortunately, there are lessons from 1988 and 1993 that should guide the Dion team.
1/ Call upon the PM to leave his bubble, and listen to the challenges facing ordinary Canadians. Turner did this in advance of the debates, reminding voters (and the media) that campaigns were about more than staged photo-ops organized by Mulroney, and on rare occasions should be about vital issues (like Free Trade). This warms the electorate up to step two…
2/ Bet the farm on the debates. Turn earnestness into passion, in both English and French. Everyone remembers how Turner came back from the dead in the 1988 English debates as a result of his passionate defense of Canadian sovereignty, but few remember how he performed above expectations in French, as well (read Graham Fraser’s Playing for Keeps for a refresher on the Debates).
Dion needs to start memorizing some great gut-check lines (in both languages), to make voters warm up to the idea that this guy could easily hand out treats at 24 Sussex come Hallowee’en (in other words, seem human). He should talk about how he wrote so many pesky letters to Lucien Bouchard that the guy eventually left politics in a huff, or mention how he first came to Ottawa with little more than a sleeping bag and a napsack, at a time when few in the country were optimistic about Canada’s longterm prospects. In other words, show some emotion, but whatever he says, don’t talk about that dog Kyoto.
3/ Challenge both Layton and May in the French debates, and ask (before Harper) why Duceppe is even here. He needs to start making a play for the abundance of progressive votes out there. He should also quote from his father Leon Dion, to remind the Quebec electorate that he’s something else besides a mousy caricature from Le Devoir, and would arguably better represent his home province than Duceppe.
4/ Inject some energy - chaos, even - into the campaign. The media has been increasingly reporting about the dismal enthusiasm surrounding the leader’s tour - poor attendance at campaign events, a light campaign schedule, etc., etc.
Dion needs to shake things up, by presenting some of the energy his team showed the morning of the leadership race. Go reckless, and avoid whatever bubble might be created for you. Mainstreet, phone-bank, do anything, as long as it shows activity.
Some historical tips, on how to successfully leave the bubble?
In 1988, after his own campaign fell into temporary disarray by the re-emergence of Turner in the polls, Mulroney righted the Tory ship by facing the key issue, unscripted. In one campaign stop, he sat down with anti-Free Trade protestors, and debated the merits of their concerns point blank. He certainly did not win their vote, but the media scrum that reported on their encounter showed a Prime Minister who was supremely confident of the direction he was ready to take the country.
Press reports state that Dion is in Quebec City today. He should be taking the media to the suburban neighbourhood he grew up in, and attempt to connect with voters. A risky strategy, especially if there are few Liberal voters to be found in Quebec’s suburbs, but to change the dynamic of this race Dion needs to cut through the media lens, and reach out to all those who fear a Tory majority.
In 1993, Chretien helped create a winning campaign by literally manufacturing enthusiasm. There was precious little down time on his tour, as even the late-night hotel stops became campaign events (I remember, because I used to attend them). It did not matter that these events were only scripted enthusaism, or that they were held well after reporters had filed their stories. They created energy, and that is just one of many items the Dion campaign seems to need.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Dion, the linguistics professor
It's been a while for this blog, but in honour of the federal vote, this scribe has decided to plunge once again into the frigid waters of Fundy democracy.
The Liberal leader was in Saint John today, and besides giving a workman-like speech on the merits of the Green Shift, he poked fun at the linguistic absurdities of Canada's two official languages.
After mentioning carbon credits blahblahblah and his jet from Inuit Air, Dion noted the oddity that in French, you travel in a plane, while in English, you travel on one. He then wondered how anybody could ever travel on top of a jet.
It wasn't quite Chretien's pepper-on-a-plate, but it was refreshingly human, and a novel way of poking fun of his own challenges with the language of Churchill. And the crowd genuinely laughed.
Any bets not one of the scribes on the leader's tour picked this up?
The Liberal leader was in Saint John today, and besides giving a workman-like speech on the merits of the Green Shift, he poked fun at the linguistic absurdities of Canada's two official languages.
After mentioning carbon credits blahblahblah and his jet from Inuit Air, Dion noted the oddity that in French, you travel in a plane, while in English, you travel on one. He then wondered how anybody could ever travel on top of a jet.
It wasn't quite Chretien's pepper-on-a-plate, but it was refreshingly human, and a novel way of poking fun of his own challenges with the language of Churchill. And the crowd genuinely laughed.
Any bets not one of the scribes on the leader's tour picked this up?
Monday, May 26, 2008
Risk Premium, and Peak Oil
Over the last year or so, the Telegraph Journal has regularly published the columns of Roy MacMullin, a Moncton-based energy writer and peak-oil disciple.
While his columns are interesting enough, they fail to convince this reader how a new world of very expensive oil barrels will fundamentally change public policy in New Brunswick (even if this economic fact probably should). Apparently, this economic fact haven't caused much concern over at Irving Oil either, as plans for Eider Rock keep lurching forward.
My beef with peak oil? It focuses too much on geology, when the real issues policy-makers need to concern themselves with are over the environment and foreign affairs. While climate change gets most of the attention, the really smart analysis seems to focus on where more and more of our expensive oil comes from. Not surprisingly, NYT columnists and others are identifying petro-dictatorships as a key catalyst behind high summer gas prices.
A fantastic article in Texas Monthly puts a very human face behind the worsening oil economy, in the form of the story of a kidnapped oil worker in the petro-rich troubled Nigerian delta. No need for a geologist to explain tapped reserves here - as long as this oil-producer (and others) is torn by civil strife, that summer trip to Freeport is going to be more expensive, and millions of residents in petro-dictatorships will continue to suffer.
Wouldn't it be nice if New Brunswickers could pay a premium for fair-trade oil, like they do for their coffee? I know I'd feel better coughing up $70 at the pump, if I knew that the gasoline that was refined here in Saint John came from oil regions in which children could walk into their neighbourhood woods without coming across guerillas with automatic rifles.
While his columns are interesting enough, they fail to convince this reader how a new world of very expensive oil barrels will fundamentally change public policy in New Brunswick (even if this economic fact probably should). Apparently, this economic fact haven't caused much concern over at Irving Oil either, as plans for Eider Rock keep lurching forward.
My beef with peak oil? It focuses too much on geology, when the real issues policy-makers need to concern themselves with are over the environment and foreign affairs. While climate change gets most of the attention, the really smart analysis seems to focus on where more and more of our expensive oil comes from. Not surprisingly, NYT columnists and others are identifying petro-dictatorships as a key catalyst behind high summer gas prices.
A fantastic article in Texas Monthly puts a very human face behind the worsening oil economy, in the form of the story of a kidnapped oil worker in the petro-rich troubled Nigerian delta. No need for a geologist to explain tapped reserves here - as long as this oil-producer (and others) is torn by civil strife, that summer trip to Freeport is going to be more expensive, and millions of residents in petro-dictatorships will continue to suffer.
Wouldn't it be nice if New Brunswickers could pay a premium for fair-trade oil, like they do for their coffee? I know I'd feel better coughing up $70 at the pump, if I knew that the gasoline that was refined here in Saint John came from oil regions in which children could walk into their neighbourhood woods without coming across guerillas with automatic rifles.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
A Speech Communications NB will never, ever, be able to write...
It its constant quest to instill every single New Brunswicker with the mantra of self-sufficiency/transformational change/status quo is not an option, a rather pedestrian provincial budget has just been tabled, and it includes a hefty increase in funds for the government's provincial communications agency.
Leaving aside the merits of communications professionals (I too was once a spin doctor - ed.), it certainly would be nice if a New Brunswick political figure could speak honestly about the pressing issues of the day, without resorting to focus-grouped talking points.
On a totally different plane, Barack Obama has just given the speech of his life, speaking in Philly about the question of race in the United States. Historians will be digesting every syllable of the prepared text for years - long after this fellow leaves the Oval Office.
And like all wonderful political addresses, this one was prepared without much input from communications professionals (in fact, a number of Obama's campaign staff did not want him to give it). Yet Barack's speech is now dominating the American news cycle. In contrast, the provincial budget has produced barely a murmur.
It's a shame that lesson hasn't been picked up by anyone here in New Brunswick - spending all the money in the world on press releases doesn't change much if you don't have anything significant to say.
Leaving aside the merits of communications professionals (I too was once a spin doctor - ed.), it certainly would be nice if a New Brunswick political figure could speak honestly about the pressing issues of the day, without resorting to focus-grouped talking points.
On a totally different plane, Barack Obama has just given the speech of his life, speaking in Philly about the question of race in the United States. Historians will be digesting every syllable of the prepared text for years - long after this fellow leaves the Oval Office.
And like all wonderful political addresses, this one was prepared without much input from communications professionals (in fact, a number of Obama's campaign staff did not want him to give it). Yet Barack's speech is now dominating the American news cycle. In contrast, the provincial budget has produced barely a murmur.
It's a shame that lesson hasn't been picked up by anyone here in New Brunswick - spending all the money in the world on press releases doesn't change much if you don't have anything significant to say.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Who Wants To Draft Elsie?
The civic election season is upon us, and so far there are few bright lights running for council. The Saint John Mayoral race, however, is bubbling along nicely. There are 3 likely candidates - Norm McFarlane, Michelle Hooton, and Ivan Court. The current council's black sheep - maverick John Ferguson - may also turn into a dark horse, and throw his hat into the ring.
A St Patrick's Day prediction, for those who feel lucky? If Ferguson stays out, McFarlane will win in a game of attrition. If Ferguson jumps in, the muck will really start to fly, and Hooton just might remain standing at the end.
Of course, if Elsie Wayne were to relaunch her elephant campaign, all bets are off.
A St Patrick's Day prediction, for those who feel lucky? If Ferguson stays out, McFarlane will win in a game of attrition. If Ferguson jumps in, the muck will really start to fly, and Hooton just might remain standing at the end.
Of course, if Elsie Wayne were to relaunch her elephant campaign, all bets are off.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Scene from American Democracy
Amount of TV time directed toward Democratic caucus in Calais, ME: O minutes
Number of voting caucus members: 51 persons
Number of write-in ballots: 2 ballots
Final Score: Barack Obama 27, Hillary Clinton 26
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Is it a chicken, or an egg?
The provincial government has just released another report, this one highlighting their plans to increase the population of the province.
The goal is to increase the provincial population by 100,000 by 2026. The list of recommendations supporting this goal is rather pedestrian, but at least there is a firm target of 6,000 more New Brunswickers by 2009.
Interestingly enough, employment growth in NB is the rosiest it has been in quite some time. This begs the question - will 6,000 new jobs attract 6,000 new citizens, or is it the other way around?
Perhaps another NB report will answer that one.
The goal is to increase the provincial population by 100,000 by 2026. The list of recommendations supporting this goal is rather pedestrian, but at least there is a firm target of 6,000 more New Brunswickers by 2009.
Interestingly enough, employment growth in NB is the rosiest it has been in quite some time. This begs the question - will 6,000 new jobs attract 6,000 new citizens, or is it the other way around?
Perhaps another NB report will answer that one.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
I've heard it through the grapevine...
that the premier will announce UNBSJ will remain as part of UNB in his address tonight.
Ed Doherty will sleep soundly - likely for the first time in months...
Ed Doherty will sleep soundly - likely for the first time in months...
Can We Bring Back 'The Picture Province'(TM)?
Apparently, the province of New Brunswick has a new brand.
Never mind hope restored, or any other message steeped in history or having significant meaning.
Our uplifting message is now "In New Brunswick you can be yourself, you can belong and you can be better."
It's a bit of a snore, but at least it's better than the status-quo is not an option.
Never mind hope restored, or any other message steeped in history or having significant meaning.
Our uplifting message is now "In New Brunswick you can be yourself, you can belong and you can be better."
It's a bit of a snore, but at least it's better than the status-quo is not an option.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Saint John City Hall, Decider
Many scorned George W. Bush when, in one of his many malapropisms, he declared that he was the 'decider.'
A similar mentality decended into Saint John a few weeks back, when mayor Norm McFarlane declared that despite upcoming consultations surrounding the North of Union development, the wrecking ball was already booked. The 'decider' had apparently made a decision.
Now, he appears to have wisely backtracked some, and allowed the public to voice their opinion in public forums and online. The only problem? When the reader attempts to get background information on the official site, he/she is told 'it's coming soon'.
Oh well, at least this city has a past record of hasty decisions. Anyone bored enough to examine 1960 council minutes will find a resolution that called upon the city to replace the historic city market with a more modern structure.
By the way, that resolution was made behind closed doors.
A similar mentality decended into Saint John a few weeks back, when mayor Norm McFarlane declared that despite upcoming consultations surrounding the North of Union development, the wrecking ball was already booked. The 'decider' had apparently made a decision.
Now, he appears to have wisely backtracked some, and allowed the public to voice their opinion in public forums and online. The only problem? When the reader attempts to get background information on the official site, he/she is told 'it's coming soon'.
Oh well, at least this city has a past record of hasty decisions. Anyone bored enough to examine 1960 council minutes will find a resolution that called upon the city to replace the historic city market with a more modern structure.
By the way, that resolution was made behind closed doors.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Thank you, Iowa....
Mega-pundit Mark Halperin has just declared Barack Obama as the likely next President of the United States.
For the record, this blog called it a few months ago.
For the record, this blog called it a few months ago.
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