Dion, the linguistics professor

It's been a while for this blog, but in honour of the federal vote, this scribe has decided to plunge once again into the frigid waters of Fundy democracy.

The Liberal leader was in Saint John today, and besides giving a workman-like speech on the merits of the Green Shift, he poked fun at the linguistic absurdities of Canada's two official languages.

After mentioning carbon credits blahblahblah and his jet from Inuit Air, Dion noted the oddity that in French, you travel in a plane, while in English, you travel on one. He then wondered how anybody could ever travel on top of a jet.

It wasn't quite Chretien's pepper-on-a-plate, but it was refreshingly human, and a novel way of poking fun of his own challenges with the language of Churchill. And the crowd genuinely laughed.

Any bets not one of the scribes on the leader's tour picked this up?

Risk Premium, and Peak Oil

Over the last year or so, the Telegraph Journal has regularly published the columns of Roy MacMullin, a Moncton-based energy writer and peak-oil disciple.

While his columns are interesting enough, they fail to convince this reader how a new world of very expensive oil barrels will fundamentally change public policy in New Brunswick (even if this economic fact probably should). Apparently, this economic fact haven't caused much concern over at Irving Oil either, as plans for Eider Rock keep lurching forward.

My beef with peak oil? It focuses too much on geology, when the real issues policy-makers need to concern themselves with are over the environment and foreign affairs. While climate change gets most of the attention, the really smart analysis seems to focus on where more and more of our expensive oil comes from. Not surprisingly, NYT columnists and others are identifying petro-dictatorships as a key catalyst behind high summer gas prices.

A fantastic article in Texas Monthly puts a very human face behind the worsening oil economy, in the form of the story of a kidnapped oil worker in the petro-rich troubled Nigerian delta. No need for a geologist to explain tapped reserves here - as long as this oil-producer (and others) is torn by civil strife, that summer trip to Freeport is going to be more expensive, and millions of residents in petro-dictatorships will continue to suffer.

Wouldn't it be nice if New Brunswickers could pay a premium for fair-trade oil, like they do for their coffee? I know I'd feel better coughing up $70 at the pump, if I knew that the gasoline that was refined here in Saint John came from oil regions in which children could walk into their neighbourhood woods without coming across guerillas with automatic rifles.

A Speech Communications NB will never, ever, be able to write...

It its constant quest to instill every single New Brunswicker with the mantra of self-sufficiency/transformational change/status quo is not an option, a rather pedestrian provincial budget has just been tabled, and it includes a hefty increase in funds for the government's provincial communications agency.

Leaving aside the merits of communications professionals (I too was once a spin doctor - ed.), it certainly would be nice if a New Brunswick political figure could speak honestly about the pressing issues of the day, without resorting to focus-grouped talking points.

On a totally different plane, Barack Obama has just given the speech of his life, speaking in Philly about the question of race in the United States. Historians will be digesting every syllable of the prepared text for years - long after this fellow leaves the Oval Office.

And like all wonderful political addresses, this one was prepared without much input from communications professionals (in fact, a number of Obama's campaign staff did not want him to give it). Yet Barack's speech is now dominating the American news cycle. In contrast, the provincial budget has produced barely a murmur.

It's a shame that lesson hasn't been picked up by anyone here in New Brunswick - spending all the money in the world on press releases doesn't change much if you don't have anything significant to say.

Who Wants To Draft Elsie?

The civic election season is upon us, and so far there are few bright lights running for council. The Saint John Mayoral race, however, is bubbling along nicely. There are 3 likely candidates - Norm McFarlane, Michelle Hooton, and Ivan Court. The current council's black sheep - maverick John Ferguson - may also turn into a dark horse, and throw his hat into the ring.

A St Patrick's Day prediction, for those who feel lucky? If Ferguson stays out, McFarlane will win in a game of attrition. If Ferguson jumps in, the muck will really start to fly, and Hooton just might remain standing at the end.

Of course, if Elsie Wayne were to relaunch her elephant campaign, all bets are off.

Scene from American Democracy

Amount of TV time directed toward Democratic caucus in Calais, ME: O minutes

Number of voting caucus members: 51 persons

Number of write-in ballots: 2 ballots

Final Score: Barack Obama 27, Hillary Clinton 26

Is it a chicken, or an egg?

The provincial government has just released another report, this one highlighting their plans to increase the population of the province.

The goal is to increase the provincial population by 100,000 by 2026. The list of recommendations supporting this goal is rather pedestrian, but at least there is a firm target of 6,000 more New Brunswickers by 2009.

Interestingly enough, employment growth in NB is the rosiest it has been in quite some time. This begs the question - will 6,000 new jobs attract 6,000 new citizens, or is it the other way around?

Perhaps another NB report will answer that one.

I've heard it through the grapevine...

that the premier will announce UNBSJ will remain as part of UNB in his address tonight.

Ed Doherty will sleep soundly - likely for the first time in months...

Can We Bring Back 'The Picture Province'(TM)?

Apparently, the province of New Brunswick has a new brand.

Never mind hope restored, or any other message steeped in history or having significant meaning.

Our uplifting message is now "In New Brunswick you can be yourself, you can belong and you can be better."

It's a bit of a snore, but at least it's better than the status-quo is not an option.

Saint John City Hall, Decider

Many scorned George W. Bush when, in one of his many malapropisms, he declared that he was the 'decider.'

A similar mentality decended into Saint John a few weeks back, when mayor Norm McFarlane declared that despite upcoming consultations surrounding the North of Union development, the wrecking ball was already booked. The 'decider' had apparently made a decision.

Now, he appears to have wisely backtracked some, and allowed the public to voice their opinion in public forums and online. The only problem? When the reader attempts to get background information on the official site, he/she is told 'it's coming soon'.

Oh well, at least this city has a past record of hasty decisions. Anyone bored enough to examine 1960 council minutes will find a resolution that called upon the city to replace the historic city market with a more modern structure.

By the way, that resolution was made behind closed doors.

Thank you, Iowa....

Mega-pundit Mark Halperin has just declared Barack Obama as the likely next President of the United States.

For the record, this blog called it a few months ago.

The Fracturing of the Irving Empire?

Wow.

The Globe and Mail's business section led today with a story suggesting that the Irving family - New Brunswick's wealthiest - is split over succession plans, and as a result may end up formally splitting up the myriad sections of the company.

The process, which will likely take over a year (and result in lots of work for Bermuda lawyers!), will formally separate forestry from energy, and may also produce a number of junior stand-alone companies.

Here's an idea. Once the legal papers are all signed, take the various components of the Irving Empire public. The resulting I.P.O.s would be larger than the province's budget, and provide regular New Brunswickers with an opportunity to share in the company's wealth.

Of course, this would also make company books public...

Where Is Journalism For Sale? Here in NB, apparently...

Say what you will about the control Irving-owned Brunswick News has over New Brunswick's daily papers, at least the crusty journalists at the Telegraph Journal work reasonably hard at crafting the daily news. Their record is far from perfect, but on any given day an NB reader can at least get more out of the TJ than its provincial cousins, the Daily Gleaner, or the Times-Transcript.

The once scrappy urban weekly, here, however, has clearly lost whatever journalistic principals it might have once had, in the pioneering years before it was consumed by Brunswick News. It's latest low, almost laughable to anyone who watches local media?

The October 18 cover story, proudly circulated throughout Fredericton, Moncton and Saint John, asks New Brunswickers to why not? consider natural gas.

Hardly the pull-no-punches reviews of urban life that here was once known for, but as a cover story it appears relatively benign (after all, natural gas is somewhat cleaner than the majority of energy sources NB Power forces New Brunswickers to consume on cold winter mornings).

The only problem? When you turn inside to actually read the cover story, it turns out that it is little more than a breathless press release/advertorial, prepared and paid for by Enbridge NB, the province's largest supplier of natural gas.

No wonder copies of here are now orphaned regularly, left in brightly-coloured newspaper boxes throughout the province. Saint Johners once had a small newspaper worthy of conversation. Now all they get is an 'urban' product about as newsworthy as a Walmart flyer.

In Golf, it's called a mulligan...

In politics, it's a do-over.

The Graham government has just announced a working group to examine the future of post-secondary education in NB. All indications are that this working group is supposed to fix the PR nightmare left by the work of the last guys.

The working group will be led by NB PSE officials.
Rick Miner has not been invited back.
The polytechnic idea may soon perish thanks to the work of over 4,000 Facebookers, another 1,000 or so committed emailers, and a united Saint John community.

You Spin Me Right Round, Baby, Right Round

Two government lines, two different dates.

"Although these are only recommendations from an independent commission and final decisions haven't been made yet by our government, I am pleased that the report kept the students' interests as its central theme.."
- Minister Ed Doherty, from a September 7 GNB News Release

"Before meeting with the students, I want to meet with the university presidents, and I also want to meet with the community college stakeholders," he said. "There will be an opportunity in the future to meet with the student groups, but our top priority today is to meet with the stakeholders at the university."
- Premier Shawn Graham, quoted in the Telegraph Journal on
October 11

If students' interests are the central theme driving the reforms, wouldn't these students be considered key stakeholders?

Aren't they worried about the wrong set of student numbers?

Saint Johners are still feeling mighty raw at Rick Miner's idea to close down UNBSJ, and letters, faxes and emails are putting a fair bit of pressure on government MLAs.

Amidst government's desire for transformative change in education, however, they may be focussing on the wrong set of numbers (or no numbers at all, in the case of Miner's report). In 2005/06, according to GNB's own education statistics, local school districts 6 and 8 saw over 220 kids drop out.

Just this Spring, UNBSJ saw over 422 of its students graduate. While this is a fine achievement, a comparison to the number above suggests that in its drive for self-sufficiency, the province is looking at the wrong institution to reform. For every 2 graduates UNBSJ produces, Greater Saint John still turns out 1 high school dropout.

According to the last census, a high school drop-out in SJ earns slightly more than $18,ooo. A university graduate earns more than $45,000. All of this suggests that perhaps we need to radically overhaul our high schools, and not our institutions of higher learning.

But to do this, we'd actually need to have government officials look at numbers for a change.

My Saint John Includes UNBSJ

In what will surely go down in history as one of the most ill-advised recommendations in the history of NB government commissions, the province's PSE commission has recently recommended the effective downgrading of UNBSJ from its current status as a comprehensive university.

The poor souls found at the Edmunston and Shippegan satellites of U de M are also to be sacrificed, in the name of "transformational change" that no one really seems ready to embrace. All told, if the commission recommendations are to be accepted, students from both the Fundy Coast and the North Shore of the province will be forced to migrate elsewhere (including, obviously, out of province universities) if they hope to complete a 4 year university degree. The significant international perspective UNBSJ is bringing to New Brunswick will also effectively be undermined, as will the research capacity of our province.

Ultimately, if the most dramatic proposals are accepted, our fine province will be less-educated. Poor old Louis Robichaud's revolutionary experiment of Equal Opportunity (and its strong education component) is now facing the prospects of its own funeral. Let's hope these dumb ideas are promptly shelved, and the old man's expirement gets to continue. New Brunswickers deserve access to quality higher education today, just as they did in the decade in which UNBSJ and UdeM were first established.

The Lonely Life of an NB Blogger....

The Telegraph Journal has recently launched its own blogosphere, and sadly, most of the highlighted blogs are uninteresting.

Need an example? This gem highlights a nose-hair trimmer, which can apparently be bought on ebay. I'm sure Dalton Camp can rest in peace knowing his old TJ columns have been replaced by online musings of weird ebay stuff.

An actual attempt at significant blogging in New Brunswick, meanwhile, is about to retire from the internet as a result of apparent reader indifference.
( http://www.portcitypolitics.blogspot.com)

Good night, port city politics. You were certainly cranky, but at least you avoided discussions of nose hair.

The Sandpipers were here! The Sandpipers were here!

Since this blog writes the odd bit on NB culture, it's easily time for a post on nature.

And what better topic than the Bay of Fundy's migratory

sandpipers! As the images taken at Johnson's Mills highlight,

they're quite a show...

Another Number Not Seen In the Times & Transcript

Odd things happen when papers essentially farm out their business section.

Take the Telegraph Journal (please! -ed). In recent months, they have practically phoned in a large part of their business news from their Moncton desk, despite the fact that the provincial paper is based in Saint John.
Because the Moncton Times & Transcript publishes whatever employment-related news release that emerges out of the hub city, you can't expect that paper to focus on good news in Saint John. But since the Telegraph Journal isn't doing it's job, some big stories are being missed.
A prime example is the latest Labour Force Survey. According to the July data, in the last year 4 out of 5 jobs created in NB were located in the Saint John CMA. For whatever reason, this sort of news isn't found in the provincial daily.

Oh well. Maybe Enterprise Saint John should just hire Paul Zed's communications staff. They will send out press releases on everything....

AECL and NB sitting in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

According to this sunny news release, AECL (or more enthusiastically, TEAM CANDU!) is prepared to conduct a feasibility study on a second Lepreau.

AECL is about to write (and pay for) a report that suggests NB should go ahead with a fancy-pants new reactor, primed to deliver over 1,000 MW of electricity to the United States.

Considering how the federal crown corporation is about to examine the export-worthiness of its own product, perhaps it is too much to ask for due diligence. But it would be really nice if someone at the provincial crown corporation, NB Power, thought hard about this:

• With a utility debt of over $2.9 billion, and average earnings from exports falling in at around a meagre $300 million annually, NB Power isn't necessarily in the best position to expand its load capacity.
• Lepreau I may have been a good investment, but it was built over 25 years ago. Since that time, NB Power generation assets have certainly had a spottier record of performance (Coleson Cove? Belledune?....anyone? Bueller?)
• The Americans are considering building over 25 new nuclear reactors, all with the financial assistance of Congress. Perhaps the New England energy market may not be as lucrative as AECL hopes (prays?) for.

All this to say that a Lepreau II feasibility study is certainly warranted, but perhaps not one that will be written by the folks who want to build the darn thing. Unless, of course, AECL offers to move Deep River, Ontario here to NB. At least that would help this province's population strategy...

UPDATE: According to the optimists, this project - if it goes ahead - won't cost NB taxpayers a dime, and NB Power may not in fact be the operator. Developing...